When you’re setting up a forecast in order to analyse a course on myWindsock, there are a couple of things you can do in order to make it a touch more accurate as well as model the difference that equipment choices might make and calculate a pacing plan. Rolling resistance, drivetrain efficiency and a number of other things can impact the accuracy of a forecast and many of these assumptions can be tightened using our advanced settings.
Let’s check out a forecast…
From the main page of the forecast, scroll down the margin on the left until you get to the bottom…
Click change settings, scroll to the bottom of the pop up and hit ‘Advanced Options’
From here you are able to set a number of options that can impact the overall time of your forecast. Let’s check out the rolling resistance feature…
How does a change in rolling resistance impact the overall time in an Ironman?
Let’s, for example, imagine we want to ride an Ironman bike split under 5 hours, that’s pretty good going for most amateur athletes. We are at Ironman Texas and are able to hold an average power of around 210W with a cda just over 0.25. These sort of numbers are typically what you might find in an amateur Ironman field. Our rolling resistance coefficient is set to 0.005, this is typical of what you might find in a training tyre – but what if we change rubber?
Rolling resistance – typical values and what to buy?
Helpfully, Aerocoach have compiled a list of rolling resistance data here which you’re able to see how various tyres performed on their test. Databases like this are how I decide which tyres to buy, but beware – there’s a payoff between puncture protection and rolling resistance!
If we move from a tyre with a crr of 0.005 to something like a GP5000 TT, which Aerocoach measured at 0.002216 for their tubeless version, how much time do we save on our Ironman from the original 5 hours, 1 minute and 38 seconds? This is a saving of around 30W which equates to a whopping 13 minutes and 55 seconds – that’s huge!
If you want to model your next race, training ride or KOM you can check out myWindsock here.
On the 11th of June 2023, CTT’s national circuit championships are going to take place on the S3/25S(A) course in Devon. This is a rolling, technically challenging circuit where pacing and the weather will likely play a large role.
The course has around 240 m of elevation per lap and there are two laps. The danger of this course is in the first climb, riders that start too hard will blow their legs off for the remainder of the race and riders that don’t warm up properly will find themselves shipping unrecoverable amounts of time on the first ascent. The long descent each lap is usually tail wind or cross tail wind and will require riders at the pointy end of the field to be brave – facing very high speeds and those who remain in the aero bars will gain time on riders that have to sit up.
The forecast for the course can be seen here – where you can interrogate all key features of the course yourself. We have decided to focus on a few key elements here, namely the steep portion of the climb and the descent.
The Climb
Using myWindsock we can run an experiment which will locate portions on the course where power matters the most. These are the portions of the course where a rider will be moving slowly. There are three portions on this course, the largest of which is on the steep section of the climb.
Where Power Matters: A numerical experiment on myWindsock which allows us to show the points on the course where we need to go very hard.
The descent
Speeds get high on the descent, riders will want to get as aerodynamic as possible. At points, riders will approach 85 km/h air speeds, which with a tailwind could mean ground speeds of around 90 km/h – the top riders will be going FAST!
How can I use myWindsock to pace my effort?
Using myWindsock to pace a time trial can be a valuable tool in optimising your performance. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to use myWindsock for pacing:
Sign up and log in: Visit the myWindsock website and create an account or log in if you already have one.
Set up your time trial: Enter the specific details of your time trial course as well as your personal numbers like power and cda. This information will help myWindsock generate accurate predictions and recommendations.
Plan your pacing strategy: Based on the wind data, identify sections of the course where you will face headwinds or tailwinds. Adjust your pacing strategy accordingly.
Pacing a rolling course like this one can be tricky but it essentially boils down to a few factors. Climb hard, but not too hard, punch over the top and recover on the descents. That said, a little planning never hurts in a time trial and if you want to plan with the best in the business as used by World Tour riders and Olympic champions – click here to sign up.
Yesterday, British hopes were dashed as Geraint Thomas blew up in the last 2k of the Giro d’Italia. This led to a lesson for all of us – leave something in the tank for a TT with a hill at the end.
What happened in the race?
In a thrilling penultimate stage mountain time trial at the 2023 Giro d’Italia, Primož Roglič defied a mechanical setback to emerge victorious and claim the pink jersey from Geraint Thomas of Ineos Grenadiers.
Despite facing a setback when his chain slipped due to a pothole during the climb, Roglič demonstrated remarkable composure and accelerated through the remainder of the ascent. He not only managed to recover but also outperformed Thomas by an impressive 40-second margin, securing the stage win.
With only one ceremonial stage remaining in Rome tomorrow, Roglič’s triumph in this stage virtually guarantees his overall victory in the race. Despite being the second fastest rider on the day, Thomas relinquishes the pink jersey that he had held for a significant portion of the competition, falling short at the final hurdle.
During the stage, Primož Roglič received an immense amount of support from a large contingent of Slovenian fans. They crossed the nearby border to cheer him on, proudly waving their nation’s flag adorned in blue, white, and red. The fans passionately chanted Roglič’s name, providing him with an extra boost of motivation and energy.
Expressing his gratitude at the finish, Roglič acknowledged the tremendous impact of the crowd support. He attributed his success partly to the enthusiastic fans, stating, “I had the legs, and the people they gave me extra watts.”
However, while Roglič basked in his triumph, his victory came at the expense of Geraint Thomas. Thomas had appeared poised to secure the overall victory and potentially become the oldest champion in Giro history. Unfortunately for Thomas, Roglič’s glory meant a sudden reversal of fortune, transforming his anticipated triumph into a heartbreaking disappointment.
Pacing a TT with a climb at the end
Everyone reading this knows that to pace a TT with a climb at the end you need to distribute your energy differently to how you might pace a totally flat time trial. We saw a little bit of this on stage one of the race but the climb was not as severe as the one the riders faced in the final TT.
Essentially, Thomas ran out of gas and it’s likely he would not have lost as much time if he’d have paced the flatter portion at the start a little more sensibly. To get a more concrete example of this, we will head into myWindsock – where all the stages from UCI races can be analysed by premium users.
An exaggeratedexample:
Stage 20 of the Giro provides a perfect example of an exaggerated TT with a hill at the end, there are many of these up and down the country including my own favourite course – the P164 in the New Forest. To further exaggerate the example we will use two scenarios, an evenly paced ride at 350W throughout (as if the rider was on erg mode) and a version where the rider does 300W on the flat and 400W on the climb. As the climb is quite long, this makes an 18W difference to the overall average power. How much time does 18W save? On a flat 25m TT, this might be around a minute.
Evenly paced ride:
The evenly paced ride shows an average speed of 23.5kph with a perfectly smooth 350W (cda = 0.2 and system weight = 75kg, realistic values for a grand tour rider).
Now we shall see what time savings can be achieved with riding the flat section a touch easier and the climb a touch harder with all the same parameters…
A better paced effort
Over 3 minutes saved with 18W extra and a change in pacing. On a flat course, 18W would save you roughly one third the amount of time it saves in this instance. This shows us the importance of a pacing plan and the consequences of blowing up on the last climb of a TT.
Using myWindsock to pace an effort
Access myWindsock: Visit the myWindsock website or download the myWindsock app on your device. Create an account if needed.
Input your time trial course: Enter the details of your time trial course into myWindsock from our library of CTT courses.
Set your target time: Specify the time you want to achieve for your time trial and myWindsock will do the rest.
The UCI rules dictate a number of measurements cyclists must follow when setting up their time trial bikes. The nice thing about the UK is that we are not beholden to these rules very often as we follow CTT or British Triathlon, depending on whether or not we are doing a triathlon or a time trial…
What do the UCI rules say?
The UCI (Union Cycliste Internationale) is the governing body for professional cycling and sets rules and regulations for various disciplines, including time trial racing. Time trial events are individual races against the clock where cyclists strive to complete a specified distance in the shortest time possible. These races require specialised equipment, and the UCI has established rules to ensure fairness and safety.
In terms of bicycles, UCI time trial rules dictate specific guidelines. The bike’s weight must not be less than 6.8 kilograms. The frame’s design must comply with UCI regulations, including specific tube dimensions and angles. The handlebars must be at least 3 cm wide at all points and may not extend beyond the front wheel axle.
UCI rules also stipulate that the front wheel must be the same diameter as the rear wheel, generally 700c. The use of disc wheels, also known as solid or full carbon wheels, is allowed, but they must meet UCI regulations regarding depth and dimensions. Additionally, time trial bikes are typically equipped with aero bars or triathlon bars to allow riders to maintain a more aerodynamic position. The exact dimensions and measurements of this position depend on a rider’s height, but CTT and triathletes are not beholden to these measurements.
UCI regulations also cover clothing and equipment. Riders must wear a skinsuit, which must not extend below the knee. Shoe covers, overshoes, and other accessories must comply with specific UCI guidelines to ensure fair competition. Skinsuits cannot have external air tripping technology attached, such as the Endura D2Z skinsuit which triathletes wear a version of and is commonly seen at CTT events.
What happens outside of these regulations? Enter “villager’s”…
Outside of these regulations, you can see some pretty obscene positions and equipment – as pioneer of rule bending (and incredible athlete) Graham Obree demonstrates in the video below.
These UCI rules aren’t followed in triathlon and we see riders going faster and faster for less power as was demonstrated in the recent Challenge Championships with riders averaging upward of 45kph with close to only around 300W.
Challenge Championships Samorin is a long-distance triathlon race held annually in Šamorín, Slovakia. It is part of the Challenge Family series, which is a global triathlon series featuring a variety of events worldwide. The race takes place in the x-bionic® sphere, a large sports and leisure complex in Šamorín.
Frederic Funk’s Strava activity from Challenge Championships.
We set off to myWindsock to work out how aero triathletes actually are. Having done a little bit of estimation and some messing around with numbers on a segment called “villager’s” from the race, we came up with some aero data from the race. You can see the forecast of the segment (where Funk has the KOM) here.
The wImpact for this segment was favourable.
Using what we could tell from Funk’s Instagram (and looking up rolling resistance data) as well as using his Strava activity for the ride we estimate his cda to be just under 0.18 – this is similar to Graham Obree’s super tuck position shown in the Youtube video embedded above! Triathletes are FAST!
If you’re not worried about UCI regulations and like going fast, all of the CTT courses are available on myWindsock and can be used in planning for your race!
The Giro d’Italia 2023 route reveal made the time trialists very happy and as a result, many have turned up. According to Pro Cycling Stats’ time trialist ranking system, 4 of the top 10 time trialists in the world have turned up including Ganna and Remco Evenepoel. Top GC time trialists like Tour de France winner Geraint Thomas and Olympic TT champ Primoz Roglic have also turned up – it’s fair to say winning a time trial at the 2023 Giro d’Italia is one of the hardest things to do in pro cycling this year. The line-up is so strong I’ve not even mentioned Kung or the fact that the current TT world champ, Tobias Foss, had to pull out as he contracted covid at the Tour de Romandie.
The second of three time trials, and the longest of the three, takes place on Sunday the 14th of May and is the flattest of the TTs – one that was made for heavier riders like Kung and Ganna.
The stage 9 route, a twisty, flat, point to point time trial made for the bigger riders.
The course includes a number of twists and turns and will likely favour riders who are able to take these corners in their aero bars.
The forecast
No preview would be complete without a myWindsock forecast. Our previous analysis went up on Instagram and was even mentioned by Rob Hatch on Eurosport.
The forecast at the time of writing predicts strong headwinds at the start of the day. Obviously, this is subject to change – if you’re wanting an up to date prediction of the conditions click here.
How fast will the contenders go?
Remco Evenepoel put in a thermonuclear time trial on stage one to win, full results can be seen here and we can use this, along with data released by Velon to work out how aero he was and how fast he might go for the TT on Sunday. The time to beat for GC contenders will be around the 40 minute mark.
The myWindsock (plus a bit of guessing from Tom) estimate for Remco’s time…
Our guess for what Remco might do today, anything under 40 minutes will be competitive on the stage today.
Due to the length and how flat the TT is, along with the fact that Remco didn’t look himself yesterday, on paper Kung should be favourite. Using numbers that we’ve seen in the past from him we can predict the following from FDJ rider…
As with anything though, there are a number of factors at play including how well riders have carried form from one day to the next. One thing that could also dictate the results is how conditions are changing throughout the day. Keep up to date on our Instagram for ongoing analysis.
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The Marriage of Power Meter Data and Weather Modeling
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The question of whether or not weight matters on a bicycle is always a hotly debated topic. Usually, it’s the case that the penalties of weight loss are not worth the effort but losing weight can make a difference on hilly courses. A while ago, Ben (the founder of myWindsock) wrote a very popular blog post on how much difference 5kg can make on a course which you can read here.
During hill climbs, weight really does matter – but what about other disciplines?
Why does weight matter?
Weight matters in cycling because the less weight a cyclist is carrying, the less energy they have to expend to maintain a given speed or climb a hill. This is because of the physics of cycling – as a cyclist pedals, they have to overcome two main forces: air resistance and the force of gravity.
Air resistance is determined by a combination of the cyclist’s speed and their frontal area (which is affected by body position and equipment). The faster a cyclist goes or the more upright they sit, the more air resistance they encounter. However, the effect of air resistance is relatively small compared to the force of gravity when cycling on a slope.
The force of gravity is determined by the cyclist’s weight, the slope of the road, and the acceleration due to gravity. When cycling uphill, the force required to overcome gravity increases with the slope of the road and the weight of the cyclist and their bike. The steeper the hill, the more important weight becomes.
What kind of course should I be more worried about weight than aero?
Since Ben wrote his blog, I’ve considered this question further as I have entered an off-road triathlon with a 30km bike course with 1000m of climbing total in the two laps. A scenario where weight will play a bigger role than aerodynamics on large parts of the course. Let’s see what myWindsock has to say about the course…
The race details…
The race that I’ve entered is an Xterra branded triathlon. For those of you that don’t know, Xterra is an off-road triathlon that typically includes a mountain bike leg. The bike courses for Xterra races are usually off-road and can include singletrack, fire roads, and technical terrain. The courses are designed to be challenging and often include steep climbs, rocky descents, and other obstacles. The one I’m racing is Lake Garda, in Italy – which is extremely hilly.
A screenshot of the course from the race website, the city loop near the shores of Lake Garda will be flat and fast but the twisty section in the forest has 1000m of climbing within the two laps.
A quick interlude on rolling resistance
One of the challenges around predicting an off road course can be rolling resistance, obviously it will vary as the surface is not the same throughout. The rolling resistance of mountain bike tires can vary depending on several factors, including the tire size, tread pattern, rubber compound, and inflation pressure.
Typically, the rolling resistance of mountain bike tires can range from around 10 to 40 watts per tire at a speed of 20 km/h on a smooth surface. However, when riding on rough terrain, the rolling resistance can be significantly higher due to the increased friction between the tire and the ground.
It’s worth noting that a lower rolling resistance typically translates to faster speeds and better efficiency, but it can come at the cost of reduced traction and durability. On the other hand, tires with higher rolling resistance may provide better traction and durability, but may be slower and less efficient. Therefore, the choice of tire depends on the rider’s priorities and the type of terrain they plan to ride on.
The coefficient of rolling resistance (Crr) is a measure of the frictional resistance between the tire and the ground, and it is typically expressed as a decimal or percentage of the tire’s weight. For mountain bike tires, the Crr can vary depending on the factors mentioned earlier, but typically ranges from around 0.004 to 0.02.
This means that for every kilogram of weight on the tire, there is a force of around 4 to 20 Newtons opposing the motion of the tire. Again, the actual Crr for a given tire can vary depending on factors such as the tire size, tread pattern, rubber compound, and inflation pressure.
You can change rolling resistance in myWindsock’s advanced options.
How much difference does a kilogram make?
Putting in our advanced settings we can have a look into how long the course might change based on weight savings. Using our initialised settings we can see the following…
The course is slow, around 19kph.
One thing that’s interesting to note is the distribution of forces, despite cda being estimated very high at around 0.4 we notice, using the force distribution graphic, that most of our resistance comes from gravity.
Gravity makes up 50% of our resistance on this course due to the lower speeds of mountain biking. That said, aerodynamics play a big role.
What happens if we lose a kg or two?
1kg gives us a significant loss of 24s over a lap, the race is two laps so in this instance a kilogram is worth almost a minute!
A significant 5kg loss is worth even more time. Obviously, the ability to lose 5kg depends a lot on your equipment, budget and starting bodyweight but on a hilly course with a slow rolling surface, weight will be vital.
If you want to plan your next race to the last detail, check out myWindsock and sign up today!
Personally, I was interested in working for myWindsock because I am a time trialing (and general performance) nerd but one thing I’ve learned is that myWindsock has a variety of uses, one of which is riding outside a little more.
I love training, but I hate the rain. I have a confession for you all – I am a triathlete. Cycling in the rain is much worse than running in the rain. Cycling in the rain can be unpleasant for a few reasons. First, getting wet is uncomfortable and makes me cold, especially if the temperature is cool. This can be exacerbated by the fact that, no matter how much money you spend, waterproof jackets run out of facilities eventually.
Where I live at the moment, we have quite a lot of rather large mountains. That can make packing for a ride very tricky – but I don’t have my turbo with me here so I’m riding in the rain if it’s raining. Weather forecasts in mountainous regions can be less accurate than in other areas due to the complex terrain and microclimates that can exist within mountain ranges. The topography of mountains can influence the weather patterns in a variety of ways, such as creating orographic lifting, which can cause air to rise and cool, leading to increased precipitation. The weather can change fast in the mountains, making myWindsock vital.
The topography of mountains can also make cycling rather tricky. Obviously a ride with 2000m of elevation in 85 km can take a little longer than a ride with my usual 400m of elevation in this distance. Planning is tough here – a 75 km loop could take anywhere from two and four hours. Obviously planning my life around riding, planning food for rides and choosing what to wear requires a tool a little more advanced than the weather app on my phone – enter myWindsock.
Using myWindsock to plan a ride
If you don’t know anything at all – read our guide on using the planner. Otherwise…
Go to myWindsock website at https://mywindsock.com/ and sign up for an account if you don’t already have one.
Once you’ve entered your ride details, myWindsock will generate a wind forecast for your ride. You’ll see a graph that shows the predicted wind speed and direction at various times throughout your ride as well as the probability of rain.
Use the wind forecast to plan your ride route. Try to choose a route that minimizes the amount of time you’ll be riding directly into the wind. You may also want to plan your route to take advantage of tailwinds.
You can also adjust your ride start time to take advantage of the best wind conditions and avoid the rain. For example, if there’s a strong headwind predicted for the morning, you may want to delay your ride until the afternoon when the wind is predicted to die down.
If you live somewhere with changeable weather (hello to everyone in the UK all year round!) then you might find planning rides with myWindsock makes your life that bit easier. Sign up here!
Using myWindsock’s cycling physics engine we raced two bikes. One a road bike and the other a time trial bike. We raced the three times at different power outputs, 150, 250 and 350 Watts. These are the sort of power numbers that might represent what a beginner, intermediate and advanced rider might do for a 25 mile time trial.
We have used a myWindsock forecast in order to see the impact of the time trial bike on the road. You’ll notice from the graphic below that we have kept the system mass and rolling resistance the same such that the difference is solely due to the time trial bike.
The course we chose was a typical UK 10 mile time trial course. You can view this course here. All Cycling Time Trials courses are available to view in myWindsock.
The Result
Below are the results of the test. On the left we have the time lost by the road bike and the distance travelled along the bottom.
Conclusion
As expected the time trial bike is significantly faster than the road bike. For a rider producing 150 Watts they will lose close to 7 minutes on a road bike. We often hear people saying “I’m not fast enough for a time trial bike”, however what is clear from the above graph is, the less power you have the more time you will lose choosing the less aerodynamic option. In terms of absolute time savings, a TT bike is better value for a slower rider!
Why is a time trial bike faster?
A time trial bike is designed to be faster than a traditional road bike, hence the price hike, in time trials for a few key reasons:
Aerodynamics: Time trial bikes are designed with aerodynamics in mind. The frame, wheels, and components are shaped to reduce air resistance, allowing the rider to move through the air more efficiently. Much of this comes from the position the rider is able to hold due to the arm rests and aero-extensions. This position is not allowed in traditional bunch racing due to the chance of a crash as the brakes can’t be immediately reached.
Geometry: Time trial bikes have a more aggressive geometry than traditional road bikes, with a steeper seat tube angle and longer top tube. This puts the rider in a more aerodynamic position than they’d be able to achieve on a road bike with clip on bars, reducing wind resistance even further.
Integrated components: Time trial bikes often feature integrated components, such as handlebars and brake levers, which further reduce drag and streamline the bike’s profile. This can make them difficult to work on – often turning what would be a simple fix on a road bike into a complicated job for a mechanic in a bike shop.
Wheel choice: Time trial bikes often use deeper section wheels, which are more aerodynamic than traditional road bike wheels. Wheels deeper than 90mm aren’t allowed under CTT’s (the UK’s governing body for time trials) road bike TT rules.
All of these factors combine to make time trial bikes faster than traditional road bikes in time trials. However, it’s important to note that time trial bikes are not necessarily faster in all situations. They are designed specifically for time trials, and may not be as comfortable or efficient for longer, more varied rides.
If you’re looking to get into time trials but are worried about not having the right equipment – Cycling Time Trials have introduced a road bike category at all their events! Make sure you’re prepared with myWindsock – perfect for planning and analysing your time trials.
30 miles per hour is the holy grail of time trials. It’s the average speed required to break 20 minutes for a ten mile time trial and 50 minutes for a 25. These are marks held in high esteem by riders up and down the country, but how many watts do you need (or how aero do you need to be) in order to hit this mark?
A myWindsock experiment
If you head to the myWindsock app and play with the input variables on a forecast for a given course, you’re able to see the kind of power and cda values required to achieve a given time.
The course used in our forecast is the national 10 on 3rd September 2023 at 7:00am and you can see the forecast by clicking on the link. Of course, the forecast is likely to change between now and race day but these numbers should give you a rough idea of what’s required on that course if you’re planning to head there and crack 20 minutes.
Time trial performance can be boiled down to two key numbers – your cda (how aero you are) and your power (how hard you’re going). Obviously each of these can further be broken down into constituent components but one simple fact remains true – you’ll go fast if you have a combination of good power and you are aerodynamic, this is news to nobody. There is a little bit of a trade off between aerodynamics and power – which you can read about here.
This image shows the combination of aerodynamics and power needed in order to break 20 minutes on the National 10 course this year. The average time trialist in the UK will break 30mph with a cda of just a little more than 0.185, a very low number!
There are a few key takeaways from this graph…
The average rider going under 20 minutes is doing 340W, this isn’t a huge amount of power and tells us that British riders are super aerodynamic.
If your cda is 0.2 (the general marker for ‘good’) then you’ll need 360W to break 20 minutes, again very strong but an achievable number for many riders in Britain.
At Remco Evenepoel’s reported cda, it would require 320W for him to ride at 30mph on this course, given that he’s capable of around 80W more than this over 20 minutes in the TT bars it works as a stark illustration of just how good world class time trialists are.
How to work out your CdA and use myWindsock to plan your race
If you want to know your cda, you can carry out a field test using myWindsock. This can be done by the methods explained in this article.
Once you know your cda, you can head to the forecast here and work out how many watts it will take to achieve your target time. This course, I suspect, will crown a national champion that gets close to 18 minutes and there will be plenty of riders that ride under 19 here. For reference, a 19 minute clocking requires a rider to average around 400W with a cda of 0.18 – these numbers sound pretty crazy but there’s probably 15-20 guys that can hit these numbers in the UK.
UK Time Trial Events
