The 2026 edition of the men’s and woman’s MSR is taking place this weekend and while everyone is wondering who will win the direction of the wind has caught our eye here at myWindsock HQ. Of course, we pay more attention to this sort of thing than the cycling journalists typically do who are often caught up checking the form book from previous races at this point in time.

The nice thing about forecasting this race is that you can ignore everything up until the final 27km, when it all kicks off. In the past couple of editions of the men’s race, UAE have gone to the front into the foot of the Cipressa and launched an attack. As mentioned on the GCN race preview, the last 27km of the race was ridden at around 47kph last year by Ganna who ended up finishing second after UAE split the race on the Poggio.

The forecast for the pair of climbs does not suit an early attack going, or sticking if it does go. A headwind changes the aerodynamic calculus for any attacking rider. If a rider attacks with a tailwind and gets clear of the peloton they benefit from the fact that the bunch behind them must now chase through the same air the attacker is moving through, meaning the peloton’s size advantage in sharing the workload is somewhat offset.

A rider doing 50kph into a 20kph headwind, however, is fighting 70kph of effective airspeed, meaning aerodynamic drag, which is proportional to the square of that figure, becomes enormous. The peloton behind, sharing the load between dozens of riders. Headwind solo attacks rarely work – even Pogacar can’t defy physics.

The wind speed forecasted at the final 27km of this race is around 15kph, with gusts around 20kph. This is not particularly strong if you’re stood still, however for a solo rider it turns a 45kph solo raid into the equivalent of 60kph in still air.

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