{"id":3490,"date":"2026-05-18T15:05:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T14:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/?p=3490"},"modified":"2026-05-18T15:05:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T14:05:45","slug":"giro-ditalia-tt-predicting-the-winning-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/discussion\/giro-ditalia-tt-predicting-the-winning-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Giro d’Italia TT – predicting the winning time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We’re going to put our money where our mouth is and try to predict the winning time of the Giro d’Italia Stage 10 TT then, after the race we’ll take a look at how we did and what this means for the first Tour de France time trial. This blog will not predict who will win the race, simply how fast someone who wants to win might have to go. The second part, which we’ll write after the TT takes place, will use Jonas Vingegaard’s data to predict his time on the TT in stage 1 of the Tour de France this coming July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One quick caveat, the GPX files available online (that we use to make the forecast) are not perfect and sometimes race day has the start ramp or finish line in a slightly different position to where the file starts and ends. This may only be a handful of seconds over the course but it can sometimes make our predictions look worse than they actually are. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A quick rundown of the course <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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It’s quite flat, we won’t be making much of the elevation in today’s blog and expect to see some 60+ tooth chainrings in the paddock. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Stage 10, which also opens the second week of racing, is the only time trial of this year’s Giro. It’s 40 kilometers from Viareggio to Massa (a good old fashioned 25 pretty much), bringing the race back toward Italy\u2019s western coast and the Tyrrhenian Sea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The route is pan-flat from start to finish, with no climbs at all, making it one for the specialists where the big engines should come to the fore. With a straightforward, largely non-technical coastal course, there\u2019s nowhere to hide, and if the wind picks up along the shoreline, it could easily become a decisive factor in the overall standings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weather <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It’s always a little bit risky talking about the weather with all forecasts subject to change, but seeing as a motorway bridge would look like a mountain on this course, it’s worth bringing up now as it’ll form the basis of our prediction. During the course of the day, the wImpact evolves from -3.9% to 1% for the final riders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The wind speed is dropping throughout the time the GC contenders will be on course. The route is a forecasted tailwind point to point. If a TT specialist catches a fast pocket of time, the speeds will be obscene. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The winning time <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

World Tour cyclists have crazy power numbers, and those that want to are able to make themselves very aerodynamic. The question here is how fast will the fastest rider in the fastest conditions go on this course? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A central estimation for a generic TT specialist (no one in particular but someone with a great cda and a huge FTP) comes in at just below 56kph and a time of 42:54 for the course. Sub 43 is going to be needed to win this TT tomorrow. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

With an expected winning speed of around 56kph, it’ll be interesting to see what Vingegaard does and how that translates onto the Tour de France course where he’ll face up to Pogacar and Seixas on day 1 in Barclona’s ITT! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sign up to myWindsock here.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re going to put our money where our mouth is and try to predict the winning time of the Giro d’Italia Stage 10 TT then, after the race we’ll take a look at how we did and what this means for the first Tour de France time trial. This blog will not predict who will … Continue reading “Giro d’Italia TT – predicting the winning time”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3490"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3494,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3490\/revisions\/3494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mywindsock.com\/page\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}